Here are the latest projections for who will make the Big Dance.
Isaac Trotter
The vibes are a bit different in Carolina country compared to a year ago. Last season, Duke swept UNC, holding the Tar Heels to 57 points apiece in each of the two matchups. UNC’s offense overall wasn’t great, but it was downright anemic against Duke.
RJ Davis and Armando Bacot had to stew over it throughout a long offseason.
The UNC pillars got their revenge on Saturday with an 84-79 road win over Duke to earn a sweep of its hated in-state rivals. Cormac Ryan scored 31 points thanks to six 3-pointers and is probably still dancing on top of the team bus 16 hours later.
"You can see the joy that they have of what they have accomplished,"UNC coach Hubert Davis said. "That’s why they came back. They came back for this."
Arizona, Tennessee and UNC have been jostling for thatlast elusive No. 1 seed, but Arizona might be out of the race after Saturday's loss to USC.If you're picking nits, Arizona now has three losses to teams who will finish with a losing record.
Tennessee doesn't have a single "bad" loss on its resume. OK, a 16-point, road drubbing to Texas A&M was not pretty, but the Aggies are surging toward a NCAA Tournament berth again and have one of the SEC's best backcourts. Tennessee could easily finish with seven losses to seven NCAA Tournament teams. North Carolina can point to a head-to-head win over the Vols in non-conference play, but it can't say it's avoided any bad losses. Georgia Tech finished in 13th place in the ACC, and Syracuseis outside the NCAA Tournament picture.
But the margin for error between Tennessee and UNC is so close. Predictive metrics still favor Tennessee. The resume for Tennessee is a bit better, too, but will head-to-head matter to the selection committee togive UNCthe vault it needs? Conference tournament week could still be a factor, as well.
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Here are 247Sports' latest projections for the field of 68with Selection Sunday justone week away.
BUBBLE
LAST FOUR IN
- Virginia Cavaliers
- Colorado Buffaloes
- New Mexico Lobos
- Iowa Hawkeyes
FIRST FOUR OUT
- Villanova Wildcats
- Providence Friars
- Texas A&M Aggies
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Midwest Region
No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 16 Norfolk StateSpartans/Austin Peay Governors
No. 8 TexasLonghornsvs. No. 9 Nebraska Cornhuskers
No. 4 BYU Cougars vs. No. 13 Appalachian State Mountaineers
No. 5South Carolina Gameco*cks vs. No. 12McNeese StateCowboys
No. 3Creighton Bluejaysvs. No. 14OaklandGolden Grizzlies
No. 6 Florida Gators vs. No. 11 New Mexico Lobos/Colorado Buffaloes
No. 7WisconsinBadgers vs. No. 10St. John's Red Storm
No. 2Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 15 Morehead State Eagles
In the spotlight:BYU has won eight of the last 12 games in Big 12 play. BYU is firmly in the conversation for a No. 4 seed right now, and it has no bad losses on its resume. Mark Pope’s group can beat literally anyone in the country when the 3-pointers are falling. The defense can leave a bit to be desired, though.
Rising fast: Doubters keep waiting on South Carolina's downfall, and it just won't happen. The Gameco*cks found a way to grind out a 93-89, overtime win over Mississippi State to punctuate a 25-win regular season. BJ Mack is a superstar, and Collin Murray-Boyles is here to stay.
East Region
No. 1 UConn Huskies vs. No. 16 Quinnipiac Bobcats
No. 8Colorado StateRams vs. No. 9Florida AtlanticOwls
No. 4Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 UC Irvine Anteaters
No. 5Auburn Tigers vs. No. 12South Florida Bulls
No. 3Baylor Bears vs. No. 14Toledo Rockets
No. 6Utah State Aggies vs. No. 11 TCU Horned Frogs
No. 7Dayton Flyersvs. No. 10 Mississippi State Bulldogs
No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington Eagles
In the spotlight:It might just be the year from hell for Kansas basketball. Arterio Morris was kicked off the team, Nick Timberlake hasstruggled mightily, Dajuan Harris was slumping, Kevin McCullar is banged up and now Hunter Dickinson suffered a shoulder injury in the second half of a blowout, road loss to No. 1 Houston.
"Hunter dislocated his shoulder," KU coach Bill Self said. "It popped back in but he’ll have an MRI to see what the diagnosis and try to get a game plan moving forward for for him. Kevin hadn’t done anything since K-State and then today he felt better, thought he’d try, so I wish we wouldn't have played Kev. But yeah it's a pretty level concern when your two best players are probably questionable moving forward.”
Kansas' injuries are extremely concerning, butKUhas been a pretty mediocreoffense for well over a month. Since Feb. 1, KU rates 84th offensively, per Bart Torvik.
Falling fast: TCU.Jamie Dixon's talented bunchhas slipped back onto the bubble in a real way after losing three of the last four to close the regular season. A home loss to Baylor stung but wasn’t a deathblow. Losing on the road to BYU is fine. But a home loss to UCF? Not great. TCU’s 357th-rated non-conference strength of schedule is a black eye on this resume.
South Region
No. 1 Houston Cougars vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
No. 8Nevada Wolfpackvs. No. 9Michigan StateSpartans
No. 4AlabamaCrimson Tide vs. No. 13 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
No. 5Clemson Tigers vs. No. 12 Grand CanyonAntelopes
No. 3Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 14 Charleston Cougars
No. 6 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 11Indiana State Sycamores
No. 7Boise State Broncos vs. No. 10Oklahoma Sooners
No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 15UNC Asheville Bulldogs
In the spotlight:UNC just has Duke’s number. Harrison Ingram, Jae’Lyn Withers and Armando Bacot just gave Duke fits on the glass, and Jon Scheyer was forced to mix and match Ryan Young, Sean Stewart or Mark Mitchell alongside Kyle Filipowski in Duke’s frontcourt. Nothing really worked. Yes, Cormac Ryan drilled some unconscious 3-pointers and an Elliot Cadeau heave went in, but Duke’s physicality has to ramp up. It can’t get punked anymore. The next time it happens, Duke could go home.
One away from lock-status:Palms were starting to sweat in East Lansing, but the Spartans are a safe bet to dance if it can knock off surging (?) Indiana on Sunday on the road or win one game in the Big Ten Tournament.
West Region
No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 16 Merrimack Warriors/Grambling StateTigers
No. 8Gonzaga Bulldogsvs. No. 9NorthwesternWildcats
No. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 13Samford Bulldogs
No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels vs. No. 12 Princeton Tigers
No. 3Kentucky Wildcatsvs. No. 14Vermont Catamounts
No. 6 Washington StateCougars vs. No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers/Iowa Hawkeyes
No. 7 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 10 Seton Hall Pirates
No. 2Arizona Wildcatsvs. No. 15 Colgate Raiders
In the spotlight:Kentucky vaults up to the No. 3 line after going into Knoxville and stunning Tennessee, 85-81. Kentucky might need to work on its late-game, press-break offense, but everything else is in good shape. It’s the seventh road win of the year for Kentucky, and John Calipari’s bunch is one buzzer-beater away from an eight-game winning streak and being considered the hottest team in America. Can Kentucky win six in a row? I don’t know. I do know that I’d be terrified to have to try and beat them.
