N.C.A.A. Tournament Brackets: A Guide to the Madness (Published 2021) (2024)

West region

Gonzaga, the top No. 1 seed, is the first team to enter the N.C.A.A. men’s tournament undefeated since Kentucky in 2014-15, and the Zags have a legitimate shot to become the first undefeated national champion since Indiana finished 32-0 in the 1975-76 season.

Gonzaga is 26-0 after beating Brigham Young to win the West Coast Conference championship on Tuesday. The Zags have a free-flowing, fast-paced offense, and they pass up the good shot for the great shot. But while Gonzaga has wins over Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa and Virginia, it has not faced an opponent outside the West Coast Conference since December.

Other teams to watch: No. 2 Iowa, No. 3 Kansas, No. 4 Virginia, No. 7 Oregon, No. 12 U.C. Santa Barbara

South region

No. 1 Baylor had the best start in program history, with 18 consecutive victories, and won the Big 12 regular-season title for the first time. The last time the Bears clinched a conference title was in 1950 as a co-champion and in 1948 as the outright winner. Baylor’s proficiency — it led the league in 3-point shooting this season — could help reverse its struggles of late.

Other teams to watch: No. 5 Villanova, No. 7 Florida, No. 8 North Carolina, No. 10 Virginia Tech

Midwest region

No. 1 Illinois will be playing in its first N.C.A.A. tournament since 2013. Its run in the Big Ten tournament, which it won with an overtime victory against Ohio State on Sunday evening, was the work of a team that felt spurned: The Fighting Illini have been irate over the winning-percentage model, approved months ago, that gave Michigan the Big Ten regular-season title. Unfortunately for other conferences, Illinois may now be looking to take out some frustrations on their teams.

Other teams to watch: No. 2 Houston, No. 3 West Virginia, No. 12 Oregon State

East region

No. 1 Michigan was 19-3 entering the Big Ten tournament despite going 23 days between games when the university athletic department shut down all sports for three weeks because of coronavirus concerns. In his second season, Coach Juwan Howard has guided the Wolverines to their first No. 1 seed in the N.C.A.A. tournament since 1993, when he played on a team that reached back-to-back N.C.A.A. championship games.

Other teams to watch: No. 2 Alabama, No. 5 Colorado, No. 15 Iona

Stanford, led by the senior guard Kiana Williams, is the No. 1 seed over all. The Cardinal clinched the Pac-12 tournament championship for the first time since 2014 with a 20-point win over U.C.L.A. on March 7 after just two losses during the regular season, including nine weeks of practice and play in Las Vegas.

In December, Stanford’s Tara VanDerveer became the coach with the most victories ever in Division I women’s college basketball, surpassing the late Pat Summitt of Tennessee with her 1,099th win. Now VanDerveer and the Cardinal are in a strong position to compete for their third N.C.A.A. title and their first since 1992.

The rest of the No. 1 seeds are UConn, South Carolina and North Carolina State.

The toughest region might be topped by No. 1 UConn and No. 2 Baylor. Placing the defending champion, Baylor, and a perpetual favorite, UConn, in the same region is a nifty way for the selection committee to potentially continue what has, over the past decade, become something of a rivalry. As it stands now, each team has beaten the other four times.

Also in the region, No. 3 seed Tennessee and No. 4 seed Kentucky are both battle tested thanks to their slog through the Southeastern Conference, where both churned out nine wins that spotlighted their respective stars Rennia Davis and Rhyne Howard.

— Natalie Weiner

You don’t need to be a college basketball expert. But you do need to read the rules of the pool thoroughly.

If it’s an old-school pool that awards the same number of points no matter which team you pick, you’re going to want to stick to the favorites. Don’t be clever with U.C. Santa Barbara or Liberty. There’s no reason to; the reward is just not worth the risk.

But if the pool awards bonus points for upsets, you’ve got to go in a completely different direction. Now you want to pick long shots in the early rounds; indeed, you must do so to have any chance of winning.

The number of players in the pool can have a big effect. If the pool is just you and a handful of friends, go ahead and pick all the favorites. But the best bet for a bigger pool is to mix up your picks a bit once you’re down to the final eight. And when picking your eventual winner, it can be to your benefit not to go with the team everyone else in your pool likes.

Look at the betting lines. In general, the better seeded teams have a better chance to win. But sometimes the oddsmakers see it a little differently. In any game in which the seeding and bookmakers disagree, go with the bookmakers.

• Based on the very early lines, one team that stands out is Rutgers, which is a 10 seed, but favored by about 2 points over seventh-seeded Clemson.

• Based on computer power rankings, some possible upsets that won’t really be upsets in the second round include Villanova over Purdue and Tennessee over Oklahoma State.

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Beware of the “hot team.” Inevitably, there are teams that get hot in their conference tournaments and get a lot of buzz to do well in the N.C.A.A. tournament. Don’t fall for the hype.

• A streaky team, like Georgetown, which won four straight games to take the Big East tournament as a No. 8 seed over the weekend, is very likely to go back to how it was playing for most of the season.

• In contrast, the teams that crashed out early in their conference tournaments — like Villanova, which lost to Georgetown in the quarterfinals of the Big East — are very likely to go back to playing well.

Look at the preseason favorites. A surprisingly good indicator of tournament success was unearthed by FiveThirtyEight a few years ago: the preseason poll. Teams that were ranked highly going into the season but underachieved often do well in the N.C.A.A. tournament.

• The teams this year that might suddenly start playing like everyone expected include Villanova, No. 3 preseason and a No. 5 seed; Virginia, No. 4 preseason and a No. 4 seed; and Wisconsin, No. 7 preseason and a No. 9 seed.

Know this: It’s not as simple as picking UConn to go all the way.

Approach low seeds with extreme caution. Even more than in the men’s tournament, the teams seeded No. 13 and higher almost never make it out of the first round.

• The last time it happened was in 2012, when No. 13 Marist defeated No. 4 Georgia. (Interestingly, of the nine victories No. 13 seeded teams have had in the N.C.A.A. women’s tournament, three belong to Marist, a No. 15 seed this year.)

The stats beyond wins and losses can help. Many of the teams in the tournament earned a bid because they have an exceptional star or a signature strength.

• No. 10 Central Florida has a stifling defense that holds opponents to a Division I low 49.9 points per game. Will that be enough to overtake turnover-prone Northwestern, a No. 7 seed?

• Could No. 11 seed Florida Gulf Coast’s Kierstan Bell and No. 12 seed Central Michigan’s Micaela Kelly, two of the top 10 scorers in the country, carry their teams to the second round?

• No. 2 seed Maryland has a red-hot offense, the most prolific in the country with 91.3 points a game. It is competing for the same spot in the Final Four as No. 1 seed South Carolina.

Take some risks, but look ahead to the endgame. Many analysts have said all along that any of the top eight teams, the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, has a good chance to take home the title.

So yes, pick a couple upsets in the first and second rounds, but really focus your energy on the round of 8 and beyond.

— Natalie Weiner

You know you should probably pick a few upsets in the first round of your men’s tournament bracket — but which ones? Here are six possibilities worth thinking about:

• No. 12 Winthrop Over No. 5 Villanova. Villanova lost the senior point guard Collin Gillespie to a season-ending knee injury, and crashed out in the Big East tournament quarterfinals to Georgetown after winning the three previous titles.

• No. 12 Georgetown Over No. 5 Colorado. This is a trendy upset pick because the Hoyas (13-12) looked terrific in winning four games in four days to capture the Big East tournament last week at Madison Square Garden.

• No. 11 Syracuse Over No. 6 San Diego State. This should be a fascinating game. Syracuse was on the bubble down the stretch before winning three of four and narrowly losing to Virginia in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament, while San Diego State rolls in on a 14-game winning streak and has not lost since mid-January.

• No. 10 Rutgers Over No. 7 Clemson. Rutgers, which is making its first appearance in the N.C.A.A. tournament since 1991, has more ways to score than Clemson and seems primed for some magic.

• No. 10 Virginia Tech Over No. 7 Florida. Virginia Tech finished third in the A.C.C., but got just a 10th seed. The team features Keve Aluma, a 6-foot-9 forward averaging 15.6 points and 8.0 rebounds, and has three players averaging six or more rebounds.

• No. 9 Georgia Tech Over No. 8 Loyola Chicago. Despite winning the A.C.C. tournament, Georgia Tech didn’t get much respect here with a No. 9 seed. Loyola has won 21 of 23 games, but could pay the price.

— Adam Zagoria

Here are some analysts’ picks in the men’s bracket:

National champion

• Mike DeCourcy of The Sporting News: Gonzaga

• Seth Greenberg, ESPN analyst and former coach: Baylor

• Jay Bilas, ESPN analyst: Gonzaga

• Dick Vitale, ESPN analyst and former coach: Gonzaga

• LaPhonso Ellis, ESPN analyst and former Notre Dame star: Baylor

• FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model: Gonzaga, 28 percent chance of winning the title

• Former President Barack Obama: Gonzaga

• New York Times consensus: Gonzaga (see more of our analysis in our prediction challenge)

Some other upset picks

• Greenberg says Winthrop, a No. 12 seed playing fifth-seeded Villanova on Friday, is “a dangerous team.”

• No. 10 Rutgers, Greenberg says, could beat No. 7 Clemson and potentially win beyond that. (Obama also has Rutgers toppling Clemson.)

• Obama has No. 13 Ohio upsetting a No. 4 Virginia team dealing with virus-related issues.

• DeCourcy picked fourth-seeded Purdue to make a run to the Final Four. The Boilermakers will be playing all the games in their home state.

• I like Oklahoma State, the No. 4 seed in the Midwest region, to beat No. 1-seeded Illinois in the round of 16 and to go on a deep run, at least to the Final Four.

— Adam Zagoria

After you’ve chosen the winners of 63 games — scientifically, of course — most bracket contests put one last obstacle between you and your expected winnings: a tiebreaker question that asks you to predict the final score of the championship game.

(Some contests ask for each team’s score, while others ask for a total combined score.)

The chances are probably low that your pool’s winner will be determined by the tiebreaker. But you’re determined to win, so you need to make sure you get this one right.

Here’s a simple analysis, looking at the last 20 men’s championship games, from 2000 to 2019:

• The median winning team’s score was 76, and the average was 74.85.

• The median losing team’s score was 69, and the average was 66.15.

• The median total combined score was 144, and the average was 141.

The averages were dragged down by the low-scoring championship game in 2011, when Connecticut beat Butler, 53-41, in what was generally considered one of the lousiest title games in recent memory. If you want to exclude that outlier, you could add one or two points to the numbers above.

That said, many people think Gonzaga will be in the championship game this year — and the Bulldogs have averaged 92.1 points per game this season. Baylor and Illinois, two other No. 1 seeds that could potentially meet Gonzaga in the final, average 84.4 and 81.4 points.

The women’s title-game scores show bigger gaps between the winners and losers: the median scores were 74.5 points for the winning team, 59 points for the losing team and 133.5 total combined points. But given the parity between the top-seeded teams this year, perhaps a tighter final will be in store.

— Jonathan Ellis

As in recent years, the men’s tournament games will be broadcast on CBS, TBS, TNT and TruTV. The official way to stream the tournament is through the N.C.A.A.’s March Madness Live app, which requires logging in through a TV provider. (The Paramount+ app will also carry games broadcast on CBS.)

The women’s tournament games will be broadcast on ESPN, ABC, ESPN2 and ESPNU and can be streamed on the ESPN app.

Here is the round-by-round schedule:

Men’s tournament

• Play-in games: Thursday, March 18

• Round of 64: Friday, March 19, and Saturday, March 20

• Round of 32: Sunday, March 21, and Monday, March 22

• Round of 16: Saturday, March 27, and Sunday, March 28

• Round of 8: Monday, March 29, and Tuesday, March 30

• Final Four: Saturday, April 3

• Championship game: Monday, April 5

Women’s tournament

• Round of 64: Sunday, March 21, and Monday, March 22

• Round of 32: Tuesday, March 23, and Wednesday, March 24

• Round of 16: Saturday, March 27, and Sunday, March 28

• Round of 8: Monday, March 29, and Tuesday, March 30

• Final Four: Friday, April 2

• Championship game: Sunday, April 4

If a team in the men’s or women’s tournament does not have five eligible players available for a game, its opponent will automatically advance.

A handful of replacement squads had been on standby to travel to game sites in Indiana and Texas in case any teams dropped out before the tournaments began. But the N.C.A.A. said Wednesday that the deadline had passed and that no new teams would be added to the tournament fields.

Teams have been arriving for the men’s tournament since Saturday, and the N.C.A.A. said Wednesday that seven people had tested positive for the virus after about 6,900 samples were processed. Because the association requires a range of people affiliated with the tournament to test on a regular basis, it left open the possibility that few — or none — of those positive results involved players or coaches.

Virginia, the 2019 men’s champion, will not arrive in Indiana until later this week, its plans delayed because of a positive test and contact tracing that sent most of the team into quarantine. The Cavaliers, a No. 4 seed in the West region, are scheduled to play No. 13 Ohio on Saturday night.

In the women’s tournament, Connecticut, the top seed in the River Walk region, will be without Coach Geno Auriemma for at least its first game after he tested positive for the virus. If UConn avoids an upset by No. 16 High Point, Auriemma is also expected to miss his team’s second-round game.

To reduce travel, most men’s tournament games will be played in Indianapolis, where the Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indiana Farmers Coliseum and Lucas Oil Stadium will host games. Teams will also play at Mackey Arena, on the campus of Purdue University in West Lafayette, Ind., and Assembly Hall, which is at Indiana University in Bloomington.

For the women’s tournament, teams will play at three sites in San Antonio: the Alamodome, the Bill Greehey Arena at St. Mary’s University and the Convocation Center at the University of Texas at San Antonio. Texas State University will have first-round games at the University Events Center in San Marcos, as will the Frank Erwin Center at the University of Texas in Austin.

More than 2,300 people in the travel parties for the 68 teams in the tournament field — players, coaches, trainers and the like — are expected to descend on Indiana for the men’s tournament. But there will also be referees, N.C.A.A. staff members, security guards, cleaning crews, journalists, relatives and fans to fill venues to up to 25 percent of their usual capacity.

In a normal year, the biggest tournament site in Indianapolis, Lucas Oil Fieldhouse, could hold up to 70,000 fans for the regional finals and the Final Four.

Spectators will largely be barred from the first and second rounds of the women’s tournament, which will be played in Texas. Beginning with that tournament’s round of 16, the Alamodome in San Antonio is expected to host no more than about 11,000 spectators.

The most well-guarded participants in the tournaments, including players and coaches, will be required to stay within what the N.C.A.A. has described as a “controlled environment.” Others, even those who may be near the courtside, will not face any such limits, though they will have to wear masks and attempt to remain six feet away from people.

Still, the N.C.A.A. quietly rewrote part of its coronavirus safety protocols to potentially shorten the quarantines of some teams arriving in Indiana for the men’s tournament, The New York Times reported on Monday.

Several public health experts said they were baffled by the decision to welcome fans to the tournament.

But we now know that one key fan, who has been vaccinated, will be there: Sister Jean Dolores Schmidt, the 101-year-old team chaplain for Loyola University-Chicago.

Duke and Kentucky have combined to win three championships since 2010, but for the first time since 1976, when the field had only 32 teams, neither will be in the field this year.

Kentucky’s season came to a merciful end last Thursday when the Wildcats lost to Mississippi State in the SEC tournament. That came about two hours after Duke had announced that its season was over after a member of the program tested positive for the coronavirus.

Two other traditional blue bloods, Kansas and North Carolina, also had frustrating seasons but earned tournament bids, Kansas as a No. 3 seed in the West region and North Carolina as a No. 8 seed in the South.

— Adam Zagoria